Why More Than 90% of Korean Idol Groups Fail

1. Overview

There is a claim that training a single idol trainee costs at least 100 million won a year, so a five-member group that trains for seven years debuts with 3.5 billion won in debt, and that this is why more than 90% of Korean idols fail.

Around September 2026, the claim spread on theqoo under the title “Why More Than 90% of Korean Idols Fail.” The post consists of two screenshots from a web variety show and three short lines of interpretation. The captions in the screenshots list meals, transportation, foreign-language lessons, acting lessons, discussion classes, and fitness training, totaling “100 million won,” followed by “at least 100 million won per trainee per year.” Beneath that, the post adds: “If a five-member group trains for at least seven years, they start their idol careers with at least 3.5 billion won in debt; you have to assume they work without pay until they receive settlements.” The specific figures and simple calculation may sound plausible, but tracing the claim back to its source reveals that many of its assumptions do not hold up.

2. The Source Footage — “YG Treasure Box” (2018)

The screenshots in the post are from the first episode of “YG Treasure Box,” YG Entertainment’s trainee survival show, released on Naver V Live on November 16, 2018. The caption “Average trainee period: 4 years, talented YG TREASURE A” refers to Treasure A, the group considered most likely to debut at the time.

In the episode, a YG new talent development team employee said that “it seems to cost at least 100 million won a year for each trainee on Treasure A,” explaining that the trainees lived in company dormitories or spent most of their time at the company. Shortly after the episode was released, several news outlets reported the comment as “YG invests at least 100 million won a year per trainee,” and it attracted considerable attention. In other words, the “100 million won” figure was not an industry average; it was an estimate of what one of the country’s largest entertainment agencies spent on an elite group approaching its debut. This has led to criticism that it is unreasonable to multiply that figure across all trainees.

3. Problems with the 3.5 Billion Won Calculation

The post’s 3.5 billion won figure comes from a simple multiplication: “5 people × 7 years × 100 million won.” But this calculation relies on three assumptions. First, it assumes that every agency and every trainee incurs costs comparable to those of YG’s elite group. Second, it assumes a seven-year training period, even though the average training period for Treasure A—the group shown in the source footage—was four years. The figure of seven appears to come from the seven-year term in the Fair Trade Commission’s standard exclusive contract, but that is the contract period after debut, not the training period.

The biggest assumption is that these costs become “debt” owed by the idols themselves. The situation varies by agency. In August 2023, Treasure members appeared on the YouTube show “MMTG” and said, “Trainees pay nothing for food or lessons. We have no debt. They see it as an investment.” By contrast, Hyebin, formerly of Momoland, said on her YouTube channel in July 2026: “Except at large agencies, costs incurred during training—lessons, food, dorms, and practice-room rentals—are all charged after debut. Simply put, it’s deferred payment. You debut with a debt of hundreds of millions of won.” Her account supports the claim that trainees at least at smaller agencies may debut with debt. But using figures from a large agency whose members said they had no debt as evidence for that claim is inconsistent.

4. Is It True That “More Than 90% Fail”?

The answer depends on what “fail” means. According to a comprehensive analysis by Professor Kim Jeong-seop of Sungshin Women’s University, covering 1,182 idol groups that debuted from H.O.T.’s debut in 1996 through 2025, an average of 39 groups debuted each year, were active for an average of 4.12 years, and had a three-year survival rate of 55.03%. If “failure” means disbanding or ceasing activities, about 45% of groups fail within three years—a far cry from 90%.

The picture changes if commercial success is the standard. In the same analysis, only 42 groups (3.55%) sold at least 300,000 copies of a single album, and only 19 (1.61%) sold at least one million. Hyebin also said that even when she received 50 million won for a single event, after splitting it with the agency, dividing the remainder among the members, and deducting expenses, she was left with about two million won. “You have to be in the top 1% of people who debut to make money. I wasn’t in that 1%,” she said. Thus, if the standard is “earning enough to support oneself,” the figure of 90% may even be optimistic. Professor Kim added, however, that “the idol industry is inherently high-risk, but the negative perceptions surrounding it have been somewhat exaggerated.”

5. Authenticity Debate

The central question is whether the claim that “trainee expenses turn into billions of won in debt, leaving most idols working without pay” accurately describes how the industry works.

5.1. The View That It Is Largely True

From this perspective, the specific figures are exaggerated, but the underlying structure is real. An idol who came from a smaller agency testified that training costs were charged after debut as “deferred payment,” leaving trainees with debts of hundreds of millions of won. The same person also revealed that, because they had to split costs such as song production, music video production, and their manager’s salary with the agency, they made no money even after ranking first. Statistics covering 30 years also show that fewer than 4% of groups sold more than 300,000 copies. If many groups disappear before paying off their debts, is it really unreasonable to conclude that most idols effectively end their careers after working “without pay”?

5.2. The View That It Is Exaggerated

However, the figures presented in the post do not match their source. “100 million won per person per year” was an employee’s estimate that it “seems to cost at least around 100 million won” for an elite group at a major agency that was top-ranked to debut, and the group’s actual average training period was four years, not seven. Moreover, members of that very group said their training costs were an investment by the company, not debt. The statistic that the three-year survival rate was 55% also directly contradicts the claim that “more than 90% fail.” Ultimately, the 3.5 billion won figure can be seen as a calculation assembled by combining details from different contexts: investment by a major agency, deferred payment practices at smaller agencies, and the seven-year term of a standard contract.

6. Trivia

• The group that debuted after “YG Treasure Box” is Treasure. Some of the trainees shown in the post’s “talented YG TREASURE A” caption later became members of Treasure.
• In 2021, The Korea Economic Daily reported industry estimates that the cost to an agency of selecting and training one trainee had risen from 20–40 million won a decade earlier to around 100 million won in recent years.